Will the Gulfies Dump Trump?

# Why This Matters The Trump administration's shift toward lower-intensity but persistent bombing operations against Iran represents a strategic recalibration that could lock the United States into a prolonged conflict without clear exit conditions. By sustaining aerial campaigns at reduced levels rather than pursuing either full-scale escalation or diplomatic resolution, the administration risks normalizing military strikes as routine policy—a precedent that erodes congressional oversight, exhausts military resources, and raises the probability of accidental escalation into major warfare. For Gulf allies like Saudi Arabia and the UAE, this middle-ground approach creates dangerous ambiguity: they face ongoing regional instability and Iranian retaliation risks without the deterrent clarity that either overwhelming force or negotiated settlement would provide. The economic consequences are equally concrete, as sustained tensions disrupt shipping lanes, elevate oil price volatility, and force businesses to maintain costly contingency planning for further escalation.