Trump restarts ‘vicious cycle’ on Iran

# Analysis The Trump administration's return to confrontational Iran policies represents a fundamental break from the diplomatic opening of recent years, with immediate consequences for global energy markets and regional security. Oil prices typically spike when Iran tensions rise, given that roughly 20% of the world's seaborne crude passes through the Strait of Hormuz—a chokepoint Iran could theoretically disrupt. The policy shift also risks undoing nuclear constraints that were painstakingly negotiated, potentially triggering an accelerated Iranian nuclear weapons program and prompting Israel, Saudi Arabia, and other regional powers to reassess their own security calculations, including military posturing that could spiral into direct conflict. For American consumers and businesses, this means exposure to higher energy costs, supply chain disruptions, and the substantial economic and military commitments required to manage another prolonged Middle Eastern conflict.