Temperature check: alarm as prediction markets lean into weather and climate bets

# Why This Matters The emergence of climate-focused prediction markets creates a genuine conflict of interest that could distort the very data society relies on for climate adaptation. If financial incentives reward forecasters for predicting worse outcomes—or conversely, downplaying risks to profit from contrarian positions—the accuracy of climate models and seasonal forecasts deteriorates precisely when we need them most for infrastructure planning, insurance pricing, and disaster preparedness. Beyond ethics, this has tangible consequences: a biased hurricane forecast could affect evacuation decisions affecting thousands, while skewed long-term climate predictions influence billions in infrastructure investment and climate policy. The immediate risk isn't that prediction markets will trigger climate change, but that they'll corrupt the information infrastructure we depend on to respond to it—turning extreme weather from a shared challenge into a profit center where some actors benefit from others' suffering.