Prolonged Iran war creating major dent in global economy, Cliff Kupchan says

# Why This Matters An extended conflict centered on Iran would strike at the global economy's most vulnerable pressure points, with cascading effects across energy markets, supply chains, and financial stability. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world's oil passes, sits at the epicenter of any Iran-centered conflict, meaning prolonged hostilities could trigger sustained crude price spikes that ripple through transportation, manufacturing, and consumer goods sectors worldwide. Beyond energy, regional instability typically forces capital flight from emerging markets, tightens credit conditions, and forces central banks to navigate competing pressures—inflation from higher oil prices versus recession risks from reduced demand. For developed economies already grappling with post-pandemic recovery and fragile growth, an Iranian conflict represents one of the few remaining scenarios that could simultaneously derail both growth and price stability, undermining the careful policy balance central banks have spent years constructing.