Iran prefers conflict with US over peace to suppress internal uprising, human rights activist warns

# Why This Matters This report highlights a critical strategic calculation that could reshape Middle East tensions: if Iran's leadership truly views international conflict as a tool for domestic control, it creates a perverse incentive structure where de-escalation becomes politically dangerous for the regime. The ongoing attacks on shipping and military bases are not isolated incidents but potential symptoms of a deliberate strategy to rally nationalist sentiment and divert attention from widespread economic hardship and protest movements at home. This dynamic is particularly consequential because it suggests traditional diplomatic off-ramps may be ineffective—offering Iran a face-saving exit from conflict might actually destabilize the regime internally by removing the external enemy that justifies its security crackdowns. For U.S. policymakers and regional allies, understanding whether Iran's provocations stem from strategic calculation versus mere opportunism fundamentally changes how military responses should be calibrated and whether any negotiating position could realistically end the cycle.