Goldman Sachs warns oil could surge to $120 a barrel if attacks on Hormuz continue

# Why This Matters A spike to $120 per barrel would represent a roughly 40-50% increase from current prices and would immediately cascade through global economies in measurable ways. Airline ticket prices would rise within weeks, shipping costs would climb, and inflation would resurge at gas pumps and in goods transportation, directly hitting household budgets and potentially forcing central banks to choose between fighting inflation and supporting growth. For vulnerable economies—particularly in Asia and Europe, which depend heavily on oil imports—such a shock could trigger recessions, while energy-exporting nations would face new currency volatility and geopolitical leverage dynamics. Goldman's warning essentially quantifies the financial cost of military escalation in one of the world's most critical chokepoints, where roughly 20% of global oil passes through, giving policymakers and investors a concrete number that ties abstract geopolitical risk to real economic pain.