Goldman Sachs warns oil could surge to $120 a barrel if attacks on Hormuz continue

# Why This Matters Goldman Sachs' projection cuts through speculative commentary to highlight a concrete economic vulnerability: roughly one-third of global seaborne oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and sustained attacks there would instantly reshape energy costs worldwide. A jump to $120 per barrel—roughly double current prices—would ripple through airline fuel surcharges, heating costs, and shipping expenses, effectively functioning as a hidden tax on consumers and businesses already managing inflation. For the U.S. economy specifically, this scenario would likely force the Federal Reserve to navigate a familiar trap: oil-driven inflation that curbs growth, potentially triggering stagflation. The warning serves as a market reality check that geopolitical risk in the Persian Gulf is no longer a distant possibility but a present-tense threat with quantifiable consequences for household budgets and corporate earnings.