Global move away from oil could lead to conflict and migration, experts say

# Why This Matters The accelerating global shift toward renewable energy poses a destabilizing threat to geopolitical stability that policymakers are only beginning to address seriously. Oil-dependent economies, particularly in Africa and the Middle East, lack the diversified industrial bases to absorb the economic shock of declining demand—a situation that historically creates conditions for state collapse, armed conflict over remaining resources, and mass displacement. Nigeria alone derives roughly 90 percent of government revenue from oil exports, meaning a sustained price decline could cripple its ability to fund schools, hospitals, and security forces, directly increasing risks of terrorism, intercommunal violence, and refugee flows toward Europe and neighboring countries. Without coordinated international investment in economic diversification for vulnerable nations, the energy transition risks exporting instability rather than solving it, making this fundamentally a question of whether wealthy nations will proactively manage the human costs of decarbonization or absorb them reactively through border crises and regional conflicts.