Fresh strikes by US and Iran risk further destabilizing the global economy

# Why This Matters The Strait of Hormuz handles roughly 20-30% of global seaborne oil trade, making it the world's most economically critical waterway—a vulnerability both the US and Iran understand deeply. Any sustained disruption to shipping through this chokepoint would immediately tighten global energy supplies, likely driving crude oil prices above $100 per barrel and triggering cascading inflation across manufacturing, transportation, and consumer goods in economies already struggling with supply chain fragility. For developing nations dependent on affordable energy imports, even a brief blockade could deepen poverty and food insecurity, while wealthy nations would face stagflation pressures that limit their policy flexibility. Beyond energy markets, the escalation pattern itself erodes the fragile norms around military restraint that have prevented regional conflicts from metastasizing into broader great-power confrontations—a deterioration that compounds the immediate economic damage with longer-term strategic uncertainty that deters investment and growth globally.